← NA Nationals 2025

Water FractalTier 1

at NA Nationals 2025

decks
55 (26.2% of field)
matches (non-mirror)
356 182-138-36
overall winrate
56.2%
ELO-adjusted winrate
51.7% avg ELO +0.5 per match
expected value
54.0% share-weighted (raw)
EV (ELO-adj)
50.5% share-weighted (skill-controlled)
Pilot Skill · average
mean ELO 1411 · median 1394 · range 1185–1689 (55 pilots with an ELO rating)
1083 Q1 1311 Q3 1469 1750
31% of pilots are in the field's top quartile, 16% in the bottom.
Head-to-Head Matchups

Winrates vs every other archetype, sorted by the opponent's field share. Mirrors excluded. Shrunk WR uses a Beta(2, 2) prior so a 1-0 cell doesn't read as 100%; it feeds the EV calc above. Adj WR is the skill-controlled view: derived from per-match ELO deltas (0.5 + avg ELO Δ / K=32, same shrinkage), so it tells you what would have happened on equal-rating play. A faded Raw WR means under 10 matches — lean on the Shrunk WR column there.

Opponent Their share Matches W-L-D Raw WR Shrunk WR Adj WR ELO Δ/match
Fire Aggro 11.4% 55 25-25-5 50.0% 50.0% 42.3% -2.7
Water Genbu 10.0% 58 35-15-8 67.2% 66.1% 67.3% +5.9
Wind Shadowstrike 6.2% 23 10-10-3 50.0% 50.0% 47.3% -1.0
Wind Luxem Zander 5.2% 33 13-14-6 48.5% 48.6% 49.8% -0.1
Fire Luxem Assassin 4.8% 16 11-3-2 75.0% 70.0% 67.0% +6.8
Wind Astra Cleric 4.8% 21 13-6-2 66.7% 64.0% 61.5% +4.4
Wind Allies 4.3% 27 11-14-2 44.4% 45.2% 39.1% -4.0
Wind Crux Lorraine 3.8% 17 2-13-2 17.6% 23.8% 16.6% -13.2
Wind Seiryuu 3.8% 16 7-9-0 43.8% 45.0% 39.7% -4.1
Fire Suzaku 2.9% 11 6-5-0 54.5% 53.3% 47.5% -1.1
Fire Crux Lorraine 1.9% 13 5-7-1 42.3% 44.1% 39.1% -4.6
Water Allies 1.9% 8 5-3-0 62.5% 58.3% 54.2% +2.0
Fire Firebloom Burn 1.0% 4 2-2-0 50.0% 50.0% 45.2% -3.1
Fire Umbra Ranger 1.0% 4 4-0-0 100.0% 75.0% 72.4% +14.4
Water Crux Lorraine 1.0% 5 2-1-2 60.0% 55.6% 46.3% -2.1
Water Crux Mage 1.0% 8 4-3-1 56.2% 54.2% 57.5% +3.6
Fire Cinderbloom Combo 0.5% 3 3-0-0 100.0% 71.4% 74.3% +18.1
Fire Crux Mage 0.5% 2 2-0-0 100.0% 66.7% 64.5% +13.9
Fire Exia Jin 0.5% 1 1-0-0 100.0% 60.0% 58.9% +14.2
Fire Kongming 0.5% 1 1-0-0 100.0% 60.0% 54.5% +7.3
Seiryuu 0.5% 0 — — — — —
Water Kongming 0.5% 2 2-0-0 100.0% 66.7% 63.7% +13.2
Water Neos 0.5% 1 0-1-0 0.0% 40.0% 41.8% -13.2
Water Ravishing Mill 0.5% 4 4-0-0 100.0% 75.0% 79.9% +19.2
Water Seiryuu 0.5% 1 0-1-0 0.0% 40.0% 34.1% -25.4
Water Tera Cleric 0.5% 2 1-1-0 50.0% 50.0% 47.5% -2.4
Water Tera Kongming 0.5% 2 1-0-1 75.0% 58.3% 59.8% +9.4
Wind Arcane 0.5% 3 2-1-0 66.7% 57.1% 50.5% +0.3
Wind Byakko 0.5% 3 2-1-0 66.7% 57.1% 60.4% +7.8
Wind Crux Mage 0.5% 1 0-1-0 0.0% 40.0% 39.7% -16.5
Wind Exia 0.5% 2 2-0-0 100.0% 66.7% 58.2% +7.9
Wind Lorraine 0.5% 0 — — — — —
Wind Overlord 0.5% 1 1-0-0 100.0% 60.0% 55.0% +8.0
Wind Razorgale 0.5% 5 2-2-1 50.0% 50.0% 37.8% -7.0
Wind Slice & Dice 0.5% 1 1-0-0 100.0% 60.0% 55.3% +8.5
Wind Wakeup Combo 0.5% 2 2-0-0 100.0% 66.7% 63.6% +13.1
Decklists · 55 from this event

The 55 public Water Fractal decklists from this event, ordered by final placement — click a pilot for the full list.

Mirror Analysis

In 55 mirror matches (5 draws excluded), here are the card-count differences that most often separated the winning deck from the losing one. Staples (cards both decks run at the same count) are filtered out — only flex slots show up below. Cards whose count only differed in fewer than 11 mirrors are also held back as too sparse to call a pattern (still visible in the raw table further down).

Winners more often ran: Fractal of Intrusion, Turbo Charge, Portentous Tanggu. Losers more often ran: Jianyu, Fate's Premonition, Song of Frost, Chill to the Bone.

↑ Played more by winners
Fractal of Intrusion
Fractal of Intrusion
Winning decks ran 2.3 copies on average, losing decks 1.9.
Of 55 mirrors: the winner ran more in 22, the loser ran more in 12, both ran the same in 21.
Turbo Charge
Turbo Charge
Winning decks ran 0.7 copies on average, losing decks 0.5.
Of 55 mirrors: the winner ran more in 18, the loser ran more in 11, both ran the same in 26.
Portentous Tanggu
Portentous Tanggu
Winning decks ran 0.9 copies on average, losing decks 0.9.
Of 55 mirrors: the winner ran more in 7, the loser ran more in 4, both ran the same in 44.
Orb of Hubris
Orb of Hubris
Winning decks ran 0.3 copies on average, losing decks 0.3.
Of 55 mirrors: the winner ran more in 12, the loser ran more in 9, both ran the same in 34.
Fast Cure
Fast Cure
Winning decks ran 3.7 copies on average, losing decks 3.7.
Of 55 mirrors: the winner ran more in 8, the loser ran more in 6, both ran the same in 41.
Wind Resonance Bauble
Wind Resonance Bauble
Winning decks ran 0.9 copies on average, losing decks 0.9.
Of 55 mirrors: the winner ran more in 7, the loser ran more in 5, both ran the same in 43.
↓ Played more by losers
Jianyu, Fate's Premonition
Jianyu, Fate's Premonition
Losing decks ran 1.6 copies on average, winning decks 1.4.
Of 55 mirrors: the loser ran more in 20, the winner ran more in 10, both ran the same in 25.
Song of Frost
Song of Frost
Losing decks ran 0.9 copies on average, winning decks 0.6.
Of 55 mirrors: the loser ran more in 15, the winner ran more in 9, both ran the same in 31.
Chill to the Bone
Chill to the Bone
Losing decks ran 2.4 copies on average, winning decks 2.1.
Of 55 mirrors: the loser ran more in 19, the winner ran more in 13, both ran the same in 23.
Frostbind
Frostbind
Losing decks ran 0.3 copies on average, winning decks 0.1.
Of 55 mirrors: the loser ran more in 11, the winner ran more in 5, both ran the same in 39.
Grand Crusader's Ring
Grand Crusader's Ring
Losing decks ran 0.2 copies on average, winning decks 0.1.
Of 55 mirrors: the loser ran more in 8, the winner ran more in 3, both ran the same in 44.
Gildas, Chronicler of Aesa
Gildas, Chronicler of Aesa
Losing decks ran 1.0 copy on average, winning decks 0.9.
Of 55 mirrors: the loser ran more in 16, the winner ran more in 12, both ran the same in 27.
Show all 46 cards with non-zero signal (raw numbers, including 26 held back from the grid above)
Card Edge In winner In loser Same Direction
Jianyu, Fate's Premonition -0.18 10 20 25
Fractal of Intrusion +0.18 22 12 19
Turbo Charge +0.13 18 11 19
Song of Frost -0.11 9 15 3
Chill to the Bone -0.11 13 19 23
Frostbind -0.11 5 11 0
Censer of Restful Peace +0.11 6 0 2
Grand Crusader's Ring -0.09 3 8 1
Gildas, Chronicler of Aesa -0.07 12 16 6
Unstable Fractal -0.05 13 16 26
Quicksilver Grail +0.05 6 3 45
Portentous Tanggu +0.05 7 4 44
Orb of Hubris +0.05 12 9 7
Coronation Ceremony -0.05 11 14 2
Fractal of Refreshment -0.05 7 10 1
Acquiescing Rejection +0.05 3 0 0
Staggering Strike -0.04 1 3 0
Fast Cure +0.04 8 6 41
Wind Resonance Bauble +0.04 7 5 43
Art of War -0.04 4 6 44
Frozen Dismissal +0.04 5 3 0
Gentle Respite +0.04 8 6 1
Xuchang, Frozen Citadel +0.04 2 0 0
Storm of Thorns +0.04 2 0 0
Tithe Proclamation -0.02 1 2 0
Lost in Thought +0.02 12 11 32
Captivating Opulence +0.02 5 4 46
Burst Asunder -0.02 0 1 54
Frostsworn Paladin +0.02 2 1 52
Extricating Touch -0.02 7 8 2
Fractal of Insight -0.02 0 1 54
Water Resonance Bauble -0.02 8 9 35
Disenchant +0.02 6 5 0
Resolute Stand -0.02 1 2 0
Fire Resonance Bauble -0.02 4 5 0
Novice Healer -0.02 0 1 0
Frostnip Pirouette -0.02 2 3 0
Fractal of Polar Depths +0.02 1 0 0
Awakened Deacon +0.02 1 0 0
Diao Chan, Dreaming Wish +0.02 1 0 0
Viridian Protective Trinket +0.00 11 11 27
Nullifying Lantern +0.00 2 2 51
Fractal of Snow +0.00 2 2 51
Wand of Frost +0.00 3 3 46
Tariff Ring +0.00 7 7 3
Wildheart Lyre +0.00 1 1 0

JSON: /api/events/25810/archetypes/Water Fractal